The country holds up to 2.5 billion barrels of oil and 8.5 trillion ft³ of gas, mostly under SDF control.
Without a unified national authority, and amid sanctions and recurring violence, no sustainable production recovery is likely before 2028–2030.
Short-term solutions (MoUs with SOCAR, Qatar) help restore energy flows, but do not address root issues: political fragmentation, sanctions, and post-war reconstruction needs. Most of Syria’s major oil and gas fields are located in the east, particularly around Deir ez‑Zor and Hasakah — territories dominated by the U.S-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) (predominantly Kurdish-led) The National+6Oilfield Workers+6LinkedIn+6جسور للدراسات+6ponderwall.com+6The New Arab+6.
🛢️ Status of Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Production Trends & Control
- Pre-civil war output reached ~ 400,000 bpd (crude) and ~8.7 bcm/year (gas); by 2023, output fell to ~40,000 bpd and ~3 bcm/year respectively due to conflict and sanctions LinkedIn+11Reuters+11Reddit+11.
- The SDF controls eastern Syria’s key fields, notably the Al‑Omar and Deir ez‑Zor fields — which supply the government around 15,000 barrels/day plus ~1 million m³/day of gas to the Homs and Baniyas refineries Wikipedia+14Reuters+14The National+14.
- Russia, following the demise of Wagner Group, has de facto control over some fields and infrastructure originally tied to them Reuters.
Refining Capacity
- Syria operates two main refineries: Baniyas (≈125,000 bpd) and Homs (~107,000 bpd). Operations have been severely disrupted due to lack of feedstock and infrastructure damage The New Arab+8Wikipedia+8IMF eLibrary+8.
🔥 Impact of Instability
Economic & Infrastructure Damage
- Years of war have led to widespread destruction: pipelines bombed, extraction facilities looted, refineries operating at reduced capacity, and workers displaced—leading to severe output drops and job losses IMF eLibraryOilfield WorkersWikipedia.
- Makeshift refineries in Kurdish-held areas and former ISIS zones have caused environmental contamination, soil and water pollution, and health issues for civilians TIME.
Fragmented Governance & Legal Uncertainty
- Control over energy-rich regions is split: government, HTS, SDF, Russian forces, and Turkey-aligned factions all manage different blocks/projects, complicating centralized governance and undermining regulatory clarity Reuters+5The New Arab+5IER+5.
- A recent agreement aims to integrate administration and oil production control in the northeast under Damascus central government—though execution remains uncertain The NationalEnab BaladiThe New Arab.
Foreign Investment & Sanctions
- While European sanctions have eased, US Caesar Act sanctions remain in force (until 2029), discouraging global energy companies from returning The National+1Enab Baladi+1.
- Foreign investors—such as U.S. firms Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy, and Argent LNG—are now exploring energy sector reconstruction west of the Euphrates, but instability and contested areas remain barriers IER+4Reuters+4The National+4.
Security Threats & Disruptions
- Ongoing violence, including recent pro-Assad insurgent attacks in western Syria, continue to destabilize key regions like Tartus, Latakia, and coastal infrastructure zones Reuters+15Wikipedia+15The Guardian+15.
- ISIS sleeper cells remain active in eastern Syria, periodically targeting SDF-held oil zones, which further disrupts operations and security stabilization efforts Wikipedia.
⚖️ Summary: Key Challenges & Outlook
| Factor | Implication |
|---|---|
| Fragmented control zones | Prevents unified resource governance and sector reform |
| Infrastructure damage | Limits production and refinery capacity, increases costs |
| Sanctions and legal uncertainty | Discourages foreign investment, complicates revenue-shared development |
| Environmental degradation | Growth hindered by radiation, pollution, and health-related liabilities |
| Political insecurity | Ongoing insurgent violence and militia control disrupt continuity and investor confidence |
Energy experts emphasize that while Syria’s oil and gas reserves remain strategically important, instability and governance challenges are the key barriers to recovery. Investment is possible—but sustainable revival depends heavily on the resolution of territorial disputes, legal frameworks, infrastructure rebuilding, and security stabilization
